"""Risk research agent. This v1 uses deterministic risk signals already present in the scan result. External reduction/unlock/regulatory data can be added behind this interface. """ from __future__ import annotations import logging from datetime import datetime, timedelta from typing import Any from app.config import settings from app.data.tushare_client import tushare_client logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) def build_risk_alerts(recommendations: list[Any], market_view: dict, latest_scan: dict | None = None) -> list[dict]: alerts: list[dict] = [] if market_view.get("regime") in {"risk_off", "defensive_watch"}: alerts.append({ "ts_code": "", "risk_type": "market_regime", "severity": "reject" if market_view.get("regime") == "risk_off" else "warning", "reject": market_view.get("regime") == "risk_off", "reason": market_view.get("summary", "市场环境偏弱"), "source": "market_agent", }) elimination = (latest_scan or {}).get("elimination_reasons") or {} if elimination: top_reason = sorted(elimination.items(), key=lambda item: item[1], reverse=True)[0] alerts.append({ "ts_code": "", "risk_type": "filter_pressure", "severity": "warning", "reject": False, "reason": f"最终过滤压力较高：{top_reason[0]} {top_reason[1]} 只", "source": "scan_process_logs", }) for rec in recommendations[:20]: trace = getattr(rec, "decision_trace", {}) or {} position_hint = (trace.get("position_adjustment") or {}).get("hint", "") if position_hint in {"wait_pullback", "wait_confirm"}: alerts.append({ "ts_code": getattr(rec, "ts_code", ""), "risk_type": "position_risk", "severity": "warning", "reject": False, "reason": "位置或买点需要等待确认，避免追高。", "source": "risk_agent", }) if settings.research_risk_enabled: alerts.extend(_build_external_stock_risks(recommendations[: settings.research_risk_stock_limit])) return _dedupe_alerts(alerts)[:40] def _build_external_stock_risks(recommendations: list[Any]) -> list[dict]: today = datetime.now() today_s = today.strftime("%Y%m%d") unlock_end = (today + timedelta(days=settings.risk_unlock_lookahead_days)).strftime("%Y%m%d") holder_start = (today - timedelta(days=settings.risk_holder_trade_lookback_days)).strftime("%Y%m%d") forecast_start = (today - timedelta(days=settings.risk_forecast_lookback_days)).strftime("%Y%m%d") announcement_start = (today - timedelta(days=settings.risk_announcement_lookback_days)).strftime("%Y%m%d") financial_start = (today - timedelta(days=settings.risk_financial_lookback_days)).strftime("%Y%m%d") alerts: list[dict] = [] for rec in recommendations: ts_code = getattr(rec, "ts_code", "") name = getattr(rec, "name", "") or ts_code if not ts_code: continue try: alerts.extend(_unlock_risks(ts_code, name, today_s, unlock_end)) alerts.extend(_holder_trade_risks(ts_code, name, holder_start, today_s)) alerts.extend(_forecast_risks(ts_code, name, forecast_start, today_s)) alerts.extend(_pledge_risks(ts_code, name)) alerts.extend(_announcement_risks(ts_code, name, announcement_start, today_s)) alerts.extend(_audit_risks(ts_code, name, financial_start, today_s)) alerts.extend(_financial_statement_risks(ts_code, name, financial_start, today_s)) except Exception as exc: logger.debug("外部风险检查失败 %s: %s", ts_code, exc) alerts.append({ "ts_code": ts_code, "risk_type": "risk_data_source", "severity": "warning", "reject": False, "reason": f"{name} 外部风险数据读取失败，保留扫描内生风险判断。", "source": "risk_agent", }) return alerts _ANNOUNCEMENT_RISK_RULES: tuple[tuple[str, tuple[str, ...], str, bool], ...] = ( ("regulatory", ("监管函", "问询函", "关注函", "警示函", "责令改正"), "warning", False), ("penalty", ("处罚", "行政处罚", "纪律处分", "公开谴责", "通报批评"), "reject", True), ("investigation", ("立案", "调查通知书", "涉嫌违法", "涉嫌信息披露违法"), "reject", True), ("litigation", ("重大诉讼", "重大仲裁", "诉讼进展", "仲裁进展"), "warning", False), ("asset_freeze", ("冻结", "轮候冻结", "司法冻结", "质押违约"), "reject", True), ("accounting_risk", ("会计差错", "前期差错", "非标准审计", "保留意见", "无法表示意见", "否定意见"), "reject", True), ) def _unlock_risks(ts_code: str, name: str, start: str, end: str) -> list[dict]: df = tushare_client.get_share_float(ts_code, start, end) if df.empty: return [] alerts = [] for _, row in df.head(3).iterrows(): ratio = _float(row.get("float_ratio")) shares = _float(row.get("float_share")) date = str(row.get("float_date") or "") holder = str(row.get("holder_name") or "限售股东") if ratio >= settings.risk_unlock_reject_ratio: severity, reject = "reject", True elif ratio >= 5 or shares >= 5000: severity, reject = "warning", False else: continue alerts.append({ "ts_code": ts_code, "risk_type": "unlock", "severity": severity, "reject": reject, "reason": f"{name} {date} 存在解禁，比例约{ratio:g}%（{holder}），需规避供给冲击。", "source": "tushare.share_float", }) return alerts def _holder_trade_risks(ts_code: str, name: str, start: str, end: str) -> list[dict]: df = tushare_client.get_holder_trade(ts_code, start, end) if df.empty: return [] alerts = [] for _, row in df.head(5).iterrows(): direction = str(row.get("in_de") or "") ratio = abs(_float(row.get("change_ratio"))) volume = abs(_float(row.get("change_vol"))) ann_date = str(row.get("ann_date") or "") holder = str(row.get("holder_name") or "股东") is_reduce = "减" in direction or direction.upper() in {"D", "DECREASE"} if not is_reduce: continue if ratio >= 2 or volume >= 3000: severity, reject = "reject", ratio >= 5 alerts.append({ "ts_code": ts_code, "risk_type": "holder_reduce", "severity": severity, "reject": reject, "reason": f"{name} {ann_date} 披露股东减持：{holder}，变动比例约{ratio:g}%。", "source": "tushare.stk_holdertrade", }) return alerts def _forecast_risks(ts_code: str, name: str, start: str, end: str) -> list[dict]: df = tushare_client.get_forecast(ts_code, start, end) if df.empty: return [] alerts = [] negative_keywords = ("预减", "亏损", "首亏", "续亏", "略减", "不确定") for _, row in df.head(3).iterrows(): forecast_type = str(row.get("type") or "") summary = str(row.get("summary") or row.get("change_reason") or "") ann_date = str(row.get("ann_date") or "") min_change = _float(row.get("p_change_min")) max_change = _float(row.get("p_change_max")) negative = any(word in forecast_type or word in summary for word in negative_keywords) or max_change < -20 if not negative: continue reject = forecast_type in {"首亏", "续亏"} or max_change < -50 alerts.append({ "ts_code": ts_code, "risk_type": "earnings_forecast", "severity": "reject" if reject else "warning", "reject": reject, "reason": f"{name} {ann_date} 业绩预告偏负面：{forecast_type}，变动区间约{min_change:g}%~{max_change:g}%。", "source": "tushare.forecast", }) return alerts def _pledge_risks(ts_code: str, name: str) -> list[dict]: df = tushare_client.get_pledge_stat(ts_code) if df.empty: return [] row = df.iloc[-1] ratio = _float(row.get("pledge_ratio")) if ratio < 30: return [] reject = ratio >= settings.risk_pledge_reject_ratio return [{ "ts_code": ts_code, "risk_type": "pledge", "severity": "reject" if reject else "warning", "reject": reject, "reason": f"{name} 股权质押比例约{ratio:g}%，需关注平仓和融资风险。", "source": "tushare.pledge_stat", }] def _announcement_risks(ts_code: str, name: str, start: str, end: str) -> list[dict]: df = tushare_client.get_announcements(ts_code, start, end) if df.empty: return [] alerts = [] for _, row in df.head(80).iterrows(): title = str(row.get("title") or "") ann_date = str(row.get("ann_date") or "") if not title: continue for risk_type, keywords, severity, reject in _ANNOUNCEMENT_RISK_RULES: if any(keyword in title for keyword in keywords): alerts.append({ "ts_code": ts_code, "risk_type": risk_type, "severity": severity, "reject": reject, "reason": f"{name} {ann_date} 公告命中风险：{title[:90]}", "source": "tushare.anns_d", }) break return alerts[:6] def _audit_risks(ts_code: str, name: str, start: str, end: str) -> list[dict]: df = tushare_client.get_fina_audit(ts_code, start, end) if df.empty: return [] alerts = [] for _, row in df.tail(3).iterrows(): result = str(row.get("audit_result") or "") ann_date = str(row.get("ann_date") or "") agency = str(row.get("audit_agency") or "审计机构") severity, reject = _classify_audit_opinion(result) if not severity: continue alerts.append({ "ts_code": ts_code, "risk_type": "audit_opinion", "severity": severity, "reject": reject, "reason": f"{name} {ann_date} 审计意见异常：{result}（{agency}）。", "source": "tushare.fina_audit", }) return alerts def _classify_audit_opinion(result: str) -> tuple[str, bool]: """Return (severity, reject) for non-standard audit opinions. Tushare often returns "标准无保留意见"; a plain substring check for "保留意见" would incorrectly reject normal audit opinions. """ text = (result or "").strip() if not text: return "", False normal_terms = ("标准无保留意见", "无保留意见") warning_terms = ("带强调事项", "强调事项段", "非标准无保留") reject_terms = ("无法表示", "否定意见", "保留意见", "非标") if any(term in text for term in normal_terms) and not any(term in text for term in warning_terms): return "", False if any(term in text for term in ("无法表示", "否定意见", "非标")): return "reject", True if "保留意见" in text and not any(term in text for term in normal_terms): return "reject", True if any(term in text for term in warning_terms): return "warning", False return "", False def _financial_statement_risks(ts_code: str, name: str, start: str, end: str) -> list[dict]: df = tushare_client.get_balance_sheet(ts_code, start, end) if df.empty: return [] row = df.iloc[-1] total_assets = _float(row.get("total_assets")) total_liab = _float(row.get("total_liab")) goodwill = _float(row.get("goodwill")) end_date = str(row.get("end_date") or "") alerts = [] if total_assets > 0: goodwill_ratio = goodwill / total_assets * 100 if goodwill_ratio >= settings.risk_goodwill_assets_warning_ratio: reject = goodwill_ratio >= settings.risk_goodwill_assets_reject_ratio alerts.append({ "ts_code": ts_code, "risk_type": "goodwill", "severity": "reject" if reject else "warning", "reject": reject, "reason": f"{name} {end_date} 商誉/总资产约{goodwill_ratio:.1f}%，需警惕减值风险。", "source": "tushare.balancesheet", }) debt_ratio = total_liab / total_assets * 100 if debt_ratio >= settings.risk_debt_assets_warning_ratio: reject = debt_ratio >= settings.risk_debt_assets_reject_ratio alerts.append({ "ts_code": ts_code, "risk_type": "debt_pressure", "severity": "reject" if reject else "warning", "reject": reject, "reason": f"{name} {end_date} 资产负债率约{debt_ratio:.1f}%，需关注偿债压力。", "source": "tushare.balancesheet", }) return alerts def _float(value: Any) -> float: try: if value in (None, ""): return 0.0 return float(value) except Exception: return 0.0 def _dedupe_alerts(alerts: list[dict]) -> list[dict]: seen = set() result = [] severity_rank = {"reject": 2, "warning": 1, "info": 0} alerts = sorted(alerts, key=lambda item: (severity_rank.get(item.get("severity", ""), 0), bool(item.get("reject"))), reverse=True) for item in alerts: key = (item.get("ts_code"), item.get("risk_type"), item.get("reason")) if key in seen: continue seen.add(key) result.append(item) return result